There are endless forecast comments in relation to the US economy recovery path, characterized by a myriad of well-know letter representations, including V-shaped, U-shaped, W-shaped, L-shaped, etc. Despite the general perception that markets are disconnected from economic fundamentals, it could be argued that US economy is actually catching up in terms of unemployment levels, business activity, general demand (consumption), favourable currency value, investments crude prices stabilizing (but still favourable to gradually returning commercial demand), etc. This could imply a rather quick economic recovery (probably by the end of the year), especially if the Fed stick to their current monetary policy (probably not so much on the asset buying, but rather the interest rate side of it) and Congress extends the successful fiscal support measures implemented so far, including business bailout funds and household support. Continue reading “US market outlook” →