USA and USA vs China
The presidential vote in November 2020 is looming. The last presidential election (2016) brought about a great deal of legitimacy concerns, which were caused by the believe that the election was rigged (by way of hacking). It is still the believe of many (although not quite proved by irrefutable evidence) that there was in fact foreign interference (most likely coming from Russia). Since the country has been widely divided lately, it is easy to see why the 2020 election results, whatever they are, have the potential to cause escalate into public unrest and protest. The current display of polarisation between Democrats and Republicans is further fuelling the fundamental public schism.
In terms of foreign policy, Trump is more likely to make bad or unsustainable diplomatic deals with China, Russia or North Korea than to start an actual war, which was clearly demonstrated by the handling of the Iran lash-out (strike) in response to General Q. Soleimani’s assassination.
The trade war between the two behemoths will transfer more permanently onto the tech field, especially when it comes to supremacy over the semiconductors and 5G-network gear markets. This will lead to broader and more challenging national security, trade and investment disputes, which in turn will affect the multi trillion-dollar tech market and eventually lead to further polarization between the two superpowers. Thus, Phase 1 of the deal was just a temporary fix – what is coming next will turn into a full-blown struggle for dominance and influence in the next stage of tech advancement. Of course, the usual instruments at the disposal of the US, namely sanctions and tariffs, will continue to play big part in boosting the international tensions and affecting the markets correspondingly.
The issues surrounding Hong Kong’s and Taiwan’s status will continue to be paramount for China and will be used by the US to exert pressure on their geopolitical, technological and economic adversary.
Brexit
The beginning of the end went well for Johnson this time around, but fundamental threats still remain to be addressed and soon – EU trade arrangements, migration, financial sector passporting, wider economic fallout, the Irish boarder, Scottish referendum, 5G fiasco, US trade deal.
Middle East
US seems to be losing ground in the region, with multiple clear displays of foreign policy weakness in terms of military presence, military response, allies support, economic pressure, etc. The complete failure of the US to handle the Iran-Iraq-Syria triangle not only speaks of foreign policy failure, but puts the region at risk of destabilization. Of course, this is playing out great for Russia, which will most likely end up being the dominating player in the region, unless US’ foreign policy dramatically changes over the next 12-18 months.
Europe/EU
The region will most likely attempt a more diplomatic and neutral course of action in terms trade, technology, policy, defence and investment, which will put the union in a tough spot when it comes to dealing with Russia, China and USA.
Turkey
The country is struggling economically – with the lyra losing value and investors losing interest. Erdogan lost Ankara and Istanbul and was nearly overthrown some time ago. Politically, the president is changing course towards Russia, which is obviously further reducing any EU-membership chance for Turkey, but Syria will be an issue when it comes to negotiating with Putin, who is using Assad’s regime as a gateway to influence, power and opportunities in the Middle East. The migrant waves hitting the country from Asia and Africa are exerting further economic pressure, but seem to be a useful bargaining chip when it comes to negotiating with the EU. Turkey, a NATO member, getting in bed with Russia is obviously a concern for the US and Trump will be addressing the issue before the year is out.
Latin America
Almost every state on the continent is struggling with some form of lagging economic growth, corruption, poverty, high crime rate, poor living standards, population displacement, low public service quality, political instability, etc. People’s anger in those countries is still accumulating and its demonstration is far from over. Venezuela remains a massive concern, with Maduro holding on to power with the help of the military junta – economic sanctions are strangling the country, leading to hyperinflation, export ban, poverty, citizens dislocation, raging corruption, sky-high crime rates, etc.
India
India also has polarisation problems – Modi is turning to religious and economic nationalism for boosting poll ratings, by acting out against the Muslim minorities in the country, in time when the country needs severe economic and even political reforms.
Climate change
Recent weather events and shifts are clearly showing the effects of global warming, with investors and other stakeholders demanding corporate actions from their stewards, who still worry more about EPS than anything else – the trending ESG corporate concept will become even more fundamental than before, with industry leaders adopting its principles widely to retain and hopefully even increase customer and investor loyalty.