Oil market analysis

Since the beginning of last week the oil prices have been crashing and reaching 30-year lows, with WTI bottoming out at $20.83 and Brent at $26.45 on Wednesday. It is important to say that the pricing factors here are not really coronavirus-related (although reduced demand due to the virus economic impact is also in play here). The true reasons behind this unseen (in a while) volatility is more of a political game (played by way of the popular price-war mechanics usually applied in the corporate world). Since Russia refused to prop up price with further output cuts (earlier in March at an official OPEC+ meeting in Austria), Saudi Arabia decided to speed things up by massively slashing its oil export prices across the board. The price war, mentioned above, is effectively waged against the US shale oil business, which has been expanding for the better part of the last decade. Continue reading “Oil market analysis” →

Potential opportunities within a bear market

The sharp drop observed in the global markets for the last two weeks have raised a myriad of questions about the health of the global economy and the possibility of imminent recession. The stock market was obviously hit particularly hard, which poses threats to various investor classes, especially those who are directly or indirectly invested in the market and are nearing retirement age – one could argue that this is the most vulnerable group of investors, for which the current market conditions and loss of value present the highest level of risk. Continue reading “Potential opportunities within a bear market” →

Key geopolitical and economic risks 2020

USA and USA vs China

The presidential vote in November 2020 is looming. The last presidential election (2016) brought about a great deal of legitimacy concerns, which were caused by the believe that the election was rigged (by way of hacking). It is still the believe of many (although not quite proved by irrefutable evidence) that there was in fact foreign interference (most likely coming from Russia). Since the country has been widely divided lately, it is easy to see why the 2020 election results, whatever they are, have the potential to cause escalate into public unrest and protest. The current display of polarisation between Democrats and Republicans is further fuelling the fundamental public schism. Continue reading “Key geopolitical and economic risks 2020” →